Homeschooling Your Family's State History

As homeschoolers, sometimes we have to deal with things called regulations. Some of these state regulations regarding homeschooling dictate subjects that must be taught in the school year. State history is often one of those. Consider making the subject more unique by homeschooling your family history alongside your state?s history.

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Those Who Want to Study State History

1924 by the WCTU Social Committee

Sometimes people actually get excited about learning the history of their state. (Who knew, right?) If you are one of those weirdo people like me, integrating your family history is just going to make the subject even more fun. When you are studying your family?s history, look for unique historical events that happened in the area. For example, Ohio was a hotbed of prohibition activity. Women across the state were calling for others to join them in the Temperance Movement. This article shares a story of women who marched through the town of Hillsboro, Ohio in support of the movement. ?Highland County is where my family originated in the state, and I would have had several generations of women alive during this period right there in Hillsboro! How interesting would it be for my daughter to search for her ancestors in local papers as they depict the story of women marching up and down Main Street? It would no longer be a story of the Temperance Movement but instead the story of her third great grandmother! The research process would also give her very good insight to the community at the time as we learn about the reactions and participation throughout the county in events such as this. It also connects our state to our nation?s history as well. By searching for a unique historical event in our family?s history, we have now introduced local, state, and national history. And, it was fun!

Looking for an easy way to integrate these pieces? While you are researching, consider creating a timeline. Study family history and state history side by side, and see if any dates and locations match those you have in your family tree. Your ancestors may have participated in the events of the time. This will give you a wonderful way to understand your state history as a part of the lives of individuals rather than as a disconnected subject.

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Those Who Have to Study State History

copyright Pontus Edenberg

You may be on this team if you really would rather have to learn anything but the history of your state. Fear not! It can be fun! Here are some ideas:

1. Focus on Projects:
Create a fun project that will tie in the geography of your state. For example, map the areas in which your ancestors lived, and seek out historical post cards from these cities and towns. Many can be found on sites such as Ebay for a small fee. Visit a local historical society to view their photograph collections. Do the post cards accurately depict what life was life, or do the photographs tell a different story?

2. Focus on Social History:
Social history focuses on the social groups and culture within a state, and how our ancestors reacted to it. If you aren?t looking forward to learning your state?s history, get excited about learning its social history! How did your family live? Where did they go to church? Did this religious group have annual meetings across the state, and if so, how would they travel to these meetings? What types of jobs were found in your family during different decades? Did relatives in different areas of the state have different jobs? What was life like for your ancestors during events such as the Depression or during the Civil War? Newspapers are a great source of this information (and it is fun to explore microfilm because it?s so different than the digital-age resources that our kids use online!)

3. Focus on the Field Trips:
Visit living history museums in the areas in which your family lived. Many will have guided tours often by local historians performing in character. These field trips can not only be entertaining, but they can be especially educational when paired with a project such as those listed above.

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Special Considerations: No Family Connection to the State

What if you don?t have a family connection to your state of residence? Consider adopting a family! Visit your local historical society to learn about family lines in your area. Or, search a historical county history at your local library. Choose a family that sounds interesting to your children. Perhaps you have a local inventor or artist in the area. By looking at their family?s connection to the state you can still study the area through the eyes of an individual.

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Building Your Family History Activity: Go on a Treasure Hunt!

We?ve talked about putting together your family tree and recording information on family group sheets. ?Where do you find the information that you?ll need to move forward with your project? Go on a treasure hunt around your home or that of your parents and grandparents. You?d be surprised what information you?ll find hiding in boxes or photo albums. Don?t just look for paper records such as marriage or death certificates. Information can be found in unlikely places. For example, I was given a small New Testament Bible that belonged to my second-great-grandmother. Inside she?s written both her married name and her maiden name. What a treasure! To get ideas on where to look, explore this free checklist.

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Are you on Pinterest?

You?ll find some great resources for you to use while you homeschool your family history on both the Homeschool Mosaics boards and my Corn and Cotton boards as well. We?d love to see you there!

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Coming in October 2012: Sharing and recording holiday traditions is a vital part of family history. With the holidays just around the corner, we?ll talk about some ways to have fun with your family and learn more about your roots this holiday season.

Source: http://homeschoolmosaics.com/homeschooling-your-familys-state-history/

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In Charlotte, Democrats Not Partying Like It's 2008 (The Note)

By MICHAEL FALCONE ( @michaelpfalcone) and AMY WALTER ( @amyewalter )

NOTABLES:

ARE YOU BETTER OFF? NO, SERIOUSLY: After either saying "no" or refusing to give a straight yes or no answer to Sunday show anchors when asked if Americans are better off today than they were four years ago, officials from Team Obama this morning changed their answers and enthusiastically offered a capital-Y "Yes," ABC's Jake Tapper reports. One day ago, Democrats had a different answer to that question. Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley yesterday on CBS was asked if Americans are better off than they were four years ago. "No, but that's not the question of this election. The question, without a doubt, we are not as well off as we were before George Bush brought us the Bush job losses, the Bush recession, the Bush deficits, the series of desert wars - charged for the first time to credit cards, the national credit card." O'Malley today on CNN: "We are clearly better off as a country because we're now creating jobs rather than losing them." Tapper notes: Clearly yesterday's answers from O'Malley and other top Democrats were deemed unacceptable. http://abcn.ws/PUKcWY

DELEGATES BEHAVING BADLY: ABC's Cecilia Vega reports on "Good Morning America," the convention hasn't even started yet, but for two of the delegates from the California delegation the party started early - and for one it's ending early. Members of the California delegation drew negative attention, including that from police, after getting drunk and rowdy on Sunday. One delegate was asked to leave, according to a spokesman for the group. "The delegate has apologized to hotel staff and agreed to leave the hotel and forego official delegation activities in Charlotte," the spokesman said in a statement. WATCH: http://abcn.ws/TQGDnh

NEW FROM TEAM OBAMA: As the Democratic National Convention gets underway, the Obama campaign is out with a fresh TV spot attacking Mitt Romney as out-of-touch and catering to the wealthy elite, ABC's Devin Dwyer reports. "The middle class is carrying a heavy load in America. But Mitt Romney doesn't see it," the narrator says. The negative tone, and scary dramatic voice, is noteworthy given all of the Obama camp's talk about focusing this week on the president's forward-looking vision and "better path forward." Those aren't touched upon here. It's airing in Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia, and Florida. But Dwyer notes where it's not airing: North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania. http://bit.ly/PCUA6Y

GOP COUNTER-PROGRAMMING: The Republican National Committee is released a new web video called "We've Heard It All Before." As they put it, "President Obama is likely to give a lot of lofty rhetoric this week, but the fact is we've heard it all before. Between the speeches, the real question that President Obama won't answer is 'Are You Better Off?'" The video juxtaposes Obama's statements in 2008 with his words in 2012. WATCH: http://bit.ly/Q0xOGF

THE NOTE:

CHARLOTTE, N.C. - It's a tough act to follow.

Even Democrats acknowledge there's almost no way for them to match the enthusiasm and energy that accompanied their party's national convention four years ago. The reason why is clear: Unlike 2008, when the theme was all about "change," Team Obama's challenge in Charlotte is to convince a wary and anxious American electorate to stick with the status quo.

At this point in 2008, 80 percent of Americans thought things in the country were "off track." Today, more than two-thirds (67 percent) still feel pessimistic about the direction of the country. Obama's challenge is to acknowledge the fact that the economy is still struggling, while providing a positive path to prosperity. Can he do this without looking defensive? If he paints too rosy of a scenario of his first term, he risks looking woefully out of touch.

The Obama campaign and its allies have made this race a referendum on Romney instead of a referendum on the president's first term. This week, the president has to make the case for what he will do to move the country forward, not just what he believes Romney will do to push us backward.

There is a lot of chatter about whether the Obama camp can fill the 75,000 seat Bank of America stadium on Thursday night. But, more broadly, there's the question of whether the convention will be able to generate the kind of interest from its base that comes close to what it had in 2008.

Just look at these headlines: "Unions shrug at Democratic convention," Politico reports. "Labor unions and Democrats form a pretty traditional political alliance that's usually on display in full force at the national conventions. ? This year? Not so much. Some union officials are sitting out the political fete entirely after the Democrats chose a labor-unfriendly location in the right-to-work state of North Carolina. Others are sending skeleton staffs to support their union delegates, but say they're focusing resources elsewhere." http://bit.ly/T9ViOk

And from the Los Angeles Times: "The national party conventions are usually accompanied by a cacophony of lavish parties, thrown by industries and interest groups jostling to get the attention of the political class. But as the Democratic establishment descends upon Charlotte, N.C., this weekend for the Democratic National Convention, lobbyists and event organizers said they expect next week's convention-related events to be less splashy than usual. http://lat.ms/ObPTkl

Gauging enthusiasm is tough (many of us remarked at how the Tampa Bay Times Forum lacked that real "buzz" during the GOP convention). But, as important as the energy in the stadium, is the ability for the nominee to fire up his base for the next two months ahead.

NOTE IT!

ABC'S RICK KLEIN: It was Ronald Reagan's question, but it's Barack Obama's difficult answer. The answer is a work in progress, but comparisons to 2008 are everywhere, and deeper even than the basic are-you-better-off formulation. A convention is a reminder of the promise of Obama in '08, or four years before that. Are Democrats as excited about Obama as they were four years ago? Eight years ago? It's not a difficult question.

"THIS WEEK" REWIND: SENIOR OBAMA ADVISER: ROMNEY CAMPAIGN BUILT ON 'TRIPOD OF LIES.' Obama adviser David Plouffe told ABC's George Stephanopoulos on Sunday that the Romney campaign is built on a "tripod of lies." "A welfare attack that is just absolutely untrue. The suggestion we're raiding Medicare - absolutely untrue. And then this whole 'we can't build it' nonsense." "I don't think we've ever seen a presidential campaign ever that's built on a foundation of absolute lies. And I think ultimately they're going to pay a price for that" Plouffe told George. George also asked Plouffe what he thought about Clint Eastwood's now infamous appearance at the RNC. "Listen, I think the president, myself, we all, I think, everyone in America thinks he's been an amazing actor and director and an American treasure" Plouffe said. "I do think the Romney campaign would probably not, three days after their convention, still having questions raised about Clint Eastwood. So you'll have to ask them how that all went down." WATCH: http://abcn.ws/NFDObC

NEW N.C. POLL GIVES ROMNEY SMALL LEAD IN THE RACE. The Charlotte Observer's Jim Morrill reports: "Republican Mitt Romney appears to have gotten his bounce from his party's national convention - at least in the state hosting the Democratic convention, according to a poll released Sunday. The new Elon University/Charlotte Observer Poll shows the GOP presidential candidate leading President Barack Obama 47 percent to 43 percent in North Carolina. The poll, which has a margin of error of 3 percentage points, surveyed likely voters from Aug. 25-30, during the GOP convention in Tampa." http://bit.ly/TQ22gk

NOTE IT! ABC'S AMY WALTER: There are plenty of signs that Obama's commitment to North Carolina is no longer as aggressive as it once was: They are not spending as much on TV here as they are in place like Iowa and Ohio. Moreover, North Carlina is a sign of what 2008 was - an ever expanding map. Today it is reality of what 2012 will be - a slog to defend the territory from 2008.

THE BUZZ:

with ABC's Elizabeth Hartfield (@LizHartfield)

IT'S OBAMA VS. OBAMA AS DNC BEGINS. ABC's Rick Klein notes: President Obama has met his own worst enemy, and his name is Barack Obama. As the Democratic National Convention gets underway this week in North Carolina - a state that epitomized the Obama wave of 2008 but has slipped steadily from the Democrats' grasp since then - memories of the hope and expectations the president embodied four years ago loom over the gathering. It's a sentiment more threatening to the president's reelection chances than the caricature of an ineffective president perpetuated by some on the right. That's one reason that version of the president was barely introduced when the GOP's own convention, a gathering that seldom lacks red meat, was held last week. http://abcn.ws/PZEeWB

JW MARRIOTT THANKS ROMNEY FOR BRINGING ATTENTION TO MORMONISM. The head of the prominent Marriott hotel chain and fellow Mormon J.W. Marriott thanked Mitt Romney today during a Mormon church service for bringing "positive attention" to the religion, which is often considered to be shrouded in mystery, reports ABC's Emily Friedman. "There has never been as much positive attention to the church, thanks to the wonderful campaign of Mitt Romney and his family," Marriott said during a service at the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints in Wolfeboro, N.H., the lakeside town where the Romney family has a home. http://abcn.ws/Ra0xqU

OBAMA SAYS HE'S STILL A HUGE EASTWOOD FAN. President Barack Obama says the ribbing Clint Eastwood gave him at the Republican National Convention last week doesn't mean he won't watch his movies, reports ABC's Matt Larotonda. "I am a huge Clint Eastwood fan," the president said in an interview excerpt released today. "He is a great actor, and an even better director," he continued. "I think the last few movies that he's made have been terrific." http://abcn.ws/OFiW0L

BIDEN RIPS INTO PAUL RYAN IN WISCONSIN. Vice President Joe Biden launched a new attack on Rep. Paul Ryan in his home state of Wisconsin yesterday, ABC's Arlette Saenz reports. He criticized Republican vice presidential candidate Paul Ryan for not admitting in his convention speech that he was a member of the bipartisan deficit commission he railed against Wednesday evening. "What he didn't tell you is he sat on that commission," Biden said at the National Railroad Museum in Green Bay. "He sat on that commission, and were he and his house Republican friends that he leads, had they voted with the commission, it would have been voted on, but he voted no. He would not let it go to the floor. He walked away." http://abcn.ws/UlNiYK

NOTED: CANDIDATE'S WIVES HELP WOO VOTERS. ABC's Sarah Parnass reports: candidates' wives face the spotlight in almost every election, but at this point in the 2012 presidential campaign, Ann Romney and Michelle Obama have taken center stage in a way few politicians' wives ever have. A match up of quotes from candidates and their wives' that ABC made in July illustrates how the women show a more empathetic side to Romney and Obama. http://abcn.ws/NLlo3v

PRE-DNC PROTEST HAS UNEVENTFUL KICK OFF IN CHARLOTTE. The AP's Michael Biesecker and Mitch Weiss report: "The kickoff protest ahead of the Democratic National Convention had the benefit of sunny skies, pent-up demand from demonstrators who were rained out in Florida and the perfect setting to decry the practices of big business. But while Sunday's March on Wall Street South was spirited, it drew only a fraction of the turnout organizers were expecting and was as free of mayhem as protests a week earlier outside the Republican National Convention in Tampa. The march had been planned as the centerpiece of the week's protests." http://abcn.ws/Q0qg6K

CONVENTION IS OBAMA CAMP'S NOT-SO-SECRET WEAPON IN N.C. The Charlotte Observer's Tim Funk and Jim Morrill report: "National political conventions used to be about just two things: Nominate a presidential ticket, then sell it to the American electorate with a big TV show. This year, there's a third goal: Win North Carolina's 15 electoral votes - and perhaps a second term in the White House - by using the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte as a campaign organizing tool. So, for more than a year, those planning the Democrats' 2012 gathering have been reaching out and energizing supporters in this crucial battleground state that President Barack Obama won four years ago by a mere 14,177 votes." http://bit.ly/O6vuSm

STILL A PARTY IN CHARLOTTE BUT A LESS LAVISH ONE. The LA Times Matea Gold reports: "as the Democratic establishment descends upon Charlotte, N.C., this weekend for the Democratic National Convention, lobbyists and event organizers said they expect next week's convention-related events to be less splashy than usual. That's in part because the Democratic National Committee banned corporations, lobbyists and political action committees from giving directly to the host committee (though they still sought in-kind corporate contributions and donations from corporate foundations), a move that chilled participation. http://lat.ms/ObPTkl

DEMOCRATS CHASE CASH WITH FLASH IN CHARLOTTE. Politico's Ken Vogel and Anna Palmer report: "Democrats have grumbled that President Barack Obama hasn't done enough to help them raise cash, and so some of the party's biggest names are taking matters into their own hands at this week's Democratic National Convention. Unlimited-money Democratic outside groups striving to keep within in shouting distance of big GOP outfits like the Karl Rove-conceived Crossroads groups are banking on help from a A-list liberal pols and celebrities like Jessica Alba and culinary legend Alice Waters." http://politi.co/Tcw8wS

IN THE NOTE'S INBOX:

MASSACHUSETTS GOP HIGHLIGHTS WARREN'S PAST LEGAL WORK WITH TRAVELER'S INSURANCE. Ahead of her speech at the DNC on Wednesday, the Massachusetts Republican party has launched a new line of attacks on Elizabeth Warren, highlighting a case where she represented Traveler's Insurance, defending them against future lawsuits from asbestos victims. The group is highlighting a series of local reports about Warren's work on the case, and calling on her to apologize to the victims of asbestos. "Professor Warren owes these laborers an apology for putting her own financial gain ahead of their safety and well-being" said Nate Little, executive director of the Massachusetts Republican party.

WHO'S TWEETING?

@KatieBosland: Gearing up for our @ABC @Yahoo! livestreaming show down in Charlotte #DNC2012?get ready @Amyewalter @rickklein @phoebedoris @davidfmeyers

@ZekeJMiller: Together, the two campaigns are responsible for sending more than a hundred people to the hospital? http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/supporters-faint-collapse-for-romney-and-obama ? via @buzzfeed

@ktumulty: Anyone know where to find an ATM in Charlotte? (no, that is not a serious question)

@McCormickJohn: RT @tackettdc: Check out the Bloomberg Insider, which includes delegate survey on 2016, HRC 68%, Rahm 2% http://buswk.co/OguAhQ #Chicago

@PatrickRuffini: Data visualization: The most memorable moments of the GOP convention revealed. http://bit.ly/OLxfzo

Also Read

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/charlotte-democrats-not-partying-2008-note-130232348--abc-news-politics.html

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Sunny by Design: Fun with Buttons

? ?When I was little my Grandmother (Grandma Dix) ?had a big jar full of buttons. ?There was also a needle and thread in that jar with a few buttons always on the string just inviting you to start sewing. ?I think this is why buttons make me happy. ?

We have recently acquired a multitude of buttons. It all started when I sent out a request to my family and friends for a few craft supplies and buttons happened to be on the list. When the buttons started rolling in I was more than happy to give them a home.?

Last week when the buttons started rolling in I just threw them all into a jar and I thought that would be the end of it. ?Then they kept coming and we out grew the jar. ?So my sweet Mara sat with me and divided all of them up into?separate?mason jars by color. She was actually better at it then I was and kept catching my mistakes. ?I think that got her excited about making something with the buttons, because that was all she talked about after that. ?Buttons, buttons, buttons. ?So the next day Mara, Marina and I sat down with some string and started to play. ?

I had originally intended for them to just play randomly and string the buttons together like I did when I was a child. Mara decided right away that she wanted to make a bracelet. ?So that's what she did.?

She picked every button herself and strung every button herself. ?

She even wanted them in a certain order. ?

Then she went on to make a necklace. ?Isn't she cute as a button??

I think what I love even more is that these buttons come from many different people and many different places and we will hopefully turn them into something beautiful. ?It's recycling but in an even more personal way. ? So thank you everyone that sent us buttons. ?We can't wait to make many more wonderful things with them. ?They brightened our day. ?

~Sunny~

Source: http://sunnybydesign.blogspot.com/2012/09/fun-with-buttons.html

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GOP paints a nation on brink, Dems see rebound

TAMPA, Fla. (AP) ? Listening to Republicans, a vote for Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan is imperative to save the nation.

"The republic of Washington and Jefferson is now in danger of becoming the democracy of debt and despair," Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul told delegates at the GOP convention delegates this past week. "Our great nation is coming apart at the seams."

He was one of many Republican speakers who tried to tap into the public's unease about the country's future.

In just days, Democrats will present a starkly different vision at their three-day convention in Charlotte, N.C., sketching out a portrait of a nation on the rebound after the worst financial crisis since the Depression. They will try to play a consistent theme in America's history ? optimism.

As Republicans convened in Tampa, President Barack Obama gave a preview of his pitch, telling a crowd in Charlottesville, Va., "We knew that solving our biggest challenges would take more than one year, or one term, or one president. We know we've still got a lot of work to do, but we are determined to get it done. We are determined to finish the job."

The November election offers the political parties' sharply different visions of the state of America, as well as of the government's role and reach. Republicans envision a smaller government, with fewer social safety net programs, increased defense spending, less regulations and additional tax cuts. Democrats see a government able to lift those who need help and a nation where the wealthier pay more of their share.

In the 10 weeks to the vote, the campaigns will present their competing views of the United States, a country plunged into the darkness of joblessness and debt versus one emerging into the light of recovery. Which vision stays with the electorate on Nov. 6 will determine whether Obama wins a second term or Romney captures the presidency.

"To the majority of Americans who now believe that the future will not be better than the past, I can guarantee you this: If Barack Obama is re-elected, you will be right," Romney told the convention.

Obama, in his Virginia speech last week, pleaded for more time.

"We've got more jobs to create and more good schools to build," he said. "We've got more homegrown energy to generate. We've got more troops to bring home. We've got more young people to send to college. We've got more doors of opportunity to open to everybody who is willing to work hard and walk through them. And it all depends on you."

Polling suggests the public sees little reason for optimism. Associated Press-GfK polls have found the share of the public who think the nation is headed in the right direction has been below 40 percent for more than a year, and has been below half for Obama's entire presidency. AP polling has not found a majority saying the nation is moving in the right direction since 2003.

Republicans determined to oust Obama made it personal and dramatic during three days of speeches at their convention, assailing the Democrat's leadership as a failure while using apocalyptic terms to describe a nation teetering on the financial precipice.

Mike Huckabee, the former Arkansas governor and onetime presidential candidate, said the clock is ticking. "Our great republic is almost out of time," he said.

The GOP pointed to an unemployment rate of 8.3 percent, tens of millions out of work, a sluggish economic recovery and a growing debt as the nation spends more than it has. This image of doom and gloom, bolstered by financial numbers, is the GOP's best-case argument that change is necessary in November.

"America is suffering through an economic calamity of truly historic dimensions," said Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky.

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker said voters should be able to tell their children and grandchildren that "we helped elect Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan to save America."

The images were bold at the Republican convention of the present and future.

Ryan, the vice presidential candidate, described college graduates, jobless and forced to return home, staring at the faded Obama posters in their bedrooms.

"None of us have to settle for the best this administration offers ? a dull, adventureless journey from one entitlement to the next, a government-planned life, a country where everything is free but us," said the Wisconsin congressman.

Starting Tuesday in Charlotte, Democrats will argue that Obama inherited a financial crisis that was the product of eight years of Republican George W. Bush.

Count on Obama's party faithful to emphasize the following: The housing market has shown signs of life after a deep downturn, retail spending had its best performance since March and the Dow Jones industrial average stands above 13,000, good news for those checking their quarterly statements on their retirement accounts.

In remarks last week, Obama described a more promising outlook for the next few years, thanks to his health care overhaul and an end to the Iraq war.

The president said 7 million young people can remain on their parents' health insurance due to his overhaul law that Romney wants to repeal while seniors will save money on prescription drugs.

He acknowledged that Republicans would paint a dire picture of the nation.

"They will tell you how bad things are over and over again, and they'll helpfully add that it's all Obama's fault," the president said.

Source: http://news.yahoo.com/gop-paints-nation-brink-dems-see-rebound-163007548--election.html

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Highster Mobile Video ~ How To Track A Cell Phone Location Without

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Earthquake hazards map study finds deadly flaws

ScienceDaily (Aug. 31, 2012) ? Three of the largest and deadliest earthquakes in recent history occurred where earthquake hazard maps didn't predict massive quakes. A University of Missouri scientist and his colleagues recently studied the reasons for the maps' failure to forecast these quakes. They also explored ways to improve the maps. Developing better hazard maps and alerting people to their limitations could potentially save lives and money in areas such as the New Madrid, Missouri fault zone.

"Forecasting earthquakes involves many uncertainties, so we should inform the public of these uncertainties," said Mian Liu, of MU's department of geological sciences. "The public is accustomed to the uncertainties of weather forecasting, but foreseeing where and when earthquakes may strike is far more difficult. Too much reliance on earthquake hazard maps can have serious consequences. Two suggestions may improve this situation. First, we recommend a better communication of the uncertainties, which would allow citizens to make more informed decisions about how to best use their resources. Second, seismic hazard maps must be empirically tested to find out how reliable they are and thus improve them."

Liu and his colleagues suggest testing maps against what is called a null hypothesis, the possibility that the likelihood of an earthquake in a given area -- like Japan -- is uniform. Testing would show which mapping approaches were better at forecasting earthquakes and subsequently improve the maps.

Liu and his colleagues at Northwestern University and the University of Tokyo detailed how hazard maps had failed in three major quakes that struck within a decade of each other. The researchers interpreted the shortcomings of hazard maps as the result of bad assumptions, bad data, bad physics and bad luck.

Wenchuan, China -- In 2008, a quake struck China's Sichuan Province and cost more than 69,000 lives. Locals blamed the government and contractors for not making buildings in the area earthquake-proof, according to Liu, who says that hazard maps bear some of the blame as well since the maps, based on bad assumptions, had designated the zone as an area of relatively low earthquake hazard.

L?og?ne, Haiti -- The 2010 earthquake that devastated Port-au-Prince and killed an estimated 316,000 people occurred along a fault that had not caused a major quake in hundreds of years. Using only the short history of earthquakes since seismometers were invented approximately one hundred years ago yielded hazard maps that were didn't indicate the danger there.

T?hoku, Japan -- Scientists previously thought the faults off the northeast coast of Japan weren't capable of causing massive quakes and thus giant tsunamis like the one that destroyed the Fukushima nuclear reactor. This bad understanding of particular faults' capabilities led to a lack of adequate preparation. The area had been prepared for smaller quakes and the resulting tsunamis, but the T?hoku quake overwhelmed the defenses.

"If we limit our attention to the earthquake records in the past, we will be unprepared for the future," Liu said. "Hazard maps tend to underestimate the likelihood of quakes in areas where they haven't occurred previously. In most places, including the central and eastern U.S., seismologists don't have a long enough record of earthquake history to make predictions based on historical patterns. Although bad luck can mean that quakes occur in places with a genuinely low probability, what we see are too many 'black swans,' or too many exceptions to the presumed patterns."

"We're playing a complicated game against nature," said the study's first author, Seth Stein of Northwestern University. "It's a very high stakes game. We don't really understand all the rules very well. As a result, our ability to assess earthquake hazards often isn't very good, and the policies that we make to mitigate earthquake hazards sometimes aren't well thought out. For example, the billions of dollars the Japanese spent on tsunami defenses were largely wasted.

"We need to very carefully try to formulate the best strategies we can, given the limits of our knowledge," Stein said. "Understanding the uncertainties in earthquake hazard maps, testing them, and improving them is important if we want to do better than we've done so far."

The study, "Why earthquake hazard maps often fail and what to do about it," was published by the journal Tectonophysics. First author of the study was Seth Stein of Northwestern University. Robert Geller of the University of Tokyo was co-author. Mian Liu is William H. Byler Distinguished Chair in Geological Sciences in the College of Arts and Science at the University of Missouri.

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